Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Particle (PM2.5) Pollution by Country in 2005 and 2010

Outdoor air pollution is becoming a serious health threat in East Asia. A former Beijing TV reporter's presentation about Chin'a heavy PM2.5 pollution (https://youtu.be/T6X2uwlQGQM) is said to generate a national sensation. To cite a serious study, a 10 µg/m3 rise in ambient PM2.5 concentration increases the relative risks of developing two types of lung cancer: adenocarcinoma by 40% and squamous cell carcinoma by 11% (Hamra et al., 2014). In addition, a recent study (Rohde & Muller, 2015) even estimated that about 17% of total annual deaths in China is due to premature deaths caused by people's chronic exposure to high PM2.5 concentrations.
So I looked at pollution data provided by the World Bank. Although just two years' data cannot show any meaningful direction for further explanation, the global particle pollution seems getting worse. The global mean annual exposure increased from 29.9 µg/m3 in 2005 to 31.3 µg/m3 in 2010. Pollution from industrial and transport sectors might be the main cause.
However, there is one important condition that we can easily overlook. Although countries with vast area of deserts recorded higher pollution levels, the effects of natural dust and sea salt should be removed to better assess the health impacts of PM2.5. So, after the final PM2.5 concentration map from SEDAC below (Figure 1), I am introducing additional images (Figure 2) from a recent study (van Donkelaar et al., 2015) that used the same satellite observation data.

Table. PM2.5 Pollution (mean annual exposure)
Unit: µg/m3
Country20052010
United Arab Emirates65.6816679.51939
China63.9953172.56515
Qatar59.8704869.02888
Mauritania69.9346665.18214
Saudi Arabia62.2024261.68340
Kuwait49.4186650.39333
Bahrain48.0139149.33072
Turkmenistan48.7660048.28830
Cabo Verde43.3633142.86366
Senegal41.3600141.19929
Pakistan37.2835538.10374
Korea, South40.0923837.52048
Libya36.4219537.18039
Niger37.3627236.82437
Gambia, The35.9384135.75570
Oman34.1293335.29841
Mali34.6213334.11404
Chad34.0340733.35825
Nepal30.6638832.66240
Egypt, Arab Rep.33.5942832.58492
India31.4686632.02058
Korea, North30.7227031.51703
World29.8648031.25349
Guinea-Bissau31.1151531.21841
Bangladesh29.8442331.13156
Iraq30.6349530.39379
Yemen, Rep.30.8154830.16242
Vietnam28.8735429.80268
Iran, Islamic Rep.30.0296329.69507
Jordan29.5333128.77559
Burkina Faso27.4852527.35054
Nigeria26.9363327.07458
Djibouti26.5141026.83520
Israel26.8805826.18212
Syrian Arab Republic26.7797725.99799
Sudan26.0786925.86403
West Bank and Gaza26.0665625.37601
Eritrea24.4471424.53869
Afghanistan24.3281223.89933
Lebanon24.5859923.79930
Lao PDR21.1954222.45218
Guinea22.6557022.28595
Cameroon22.0860122.17291
Uzbekistan23.7202622.10496
Algeria22.4368322.04645
Benin22.2024521.92649
Japan22.7931521.81006
Myanmar21.7250921.77255
Bhutan20.1981821.72453
Malta22.7660221.30753
Thailand20.8766021.07797
Togo21.3373520.98064
Morocco20.1355419.97916
Singapore20.8527019.82913
Barbados19.4759719.41978
Central African Republic19.7682219.21593
Italy21.7404019.04609
Tunisia19.7694519.04604
Cyprus19.7642618.96764
Belgium22.0812818.80821
Armenia19.9266518.73134
Netherlands21.7258118.54935
Ghana18.3761618.01068
Dominica17.7888117.98825
St. Lucia18.1806017.96446
Sierra Leone17.8590317.63314
Antigua and Barbuda17.4134317.45214
Turkey18.4980317.44953
Cambodia17.5492617.43361
Azerbaijan18.7411917.28889
Romania20.7527917.25078
St. Vincent and the Grenadines17.3969517.09740
Greece18.9092116.89706
Macedonia, FYR19.1450416.85793
Bulgaria19.5304016.81881
Tajikistan18.5761916.68379
Mexico16.8363116.64726
Hungary19.8495116.24823
Kyrgyz Republic18.2299915.98221
Montenegro18.5736015.89186
Serbia18.5736015.89186
Germany19.0430215.85773
Poland18.9860315.78261
Maldives15.1919915.75179
Czech Republic19.4599915.66124
Ethiopia15.3943215.41976
Grenada16.0724715.27145
Cote d'Ivoire15.4699615.24135
Slovenia17.6498215.23634
Congo, Dem. Rep.15.1271715.13202
Slovak Republic18.2234715.00319
Croatia16.9260314.36613
France15.6156314.33079
Albania16.4110014.29622
Rwanda14.1384514.16464
Congo, Rep.14.7815814.02519
Spain14.8168113.98518
Switzerland15.9197313.86089
Indonesia13.9369113.80772
Moldova16.8412213.79449
United Kingdom14.9185913.70214
Kazakhstan13.1732813.39266
United States13.7376413.38303
Luxembourg15.6786213.29090
Austria15.0184413.22534
Bahamas, The13.2474813.02847
Andorra13.6713712.99452
Malaysia13.0863012.94251
Ukraine15.4910912.69998
Portugal11.7735412.53817
Bosnia and Herzegovina13.4228912.41069
Georgia11.7792812.00855
Jamaica10.1764311.96345
Guatemala10.6307011.85139
Denmark11.5360211.70216
Haiti12.1077111.42943
Burundi11.4971211.23896
Angola10.3576211.23079
Belarus10.2921410.64201
Lithuania7.8831310.15811
Canada10.2861610.14480
Uganda10.8761310.03688
Peru10.160269.80432
Russian Federation8.754589.59945
Mongolia9.321799.20861
Latvia5.013999.14117
Dominican Republic9.566408.90070
Liberia8.212808.78300
Ireland7.048138.67139
Sri Lanka10.244678.61689
Somalia8.136998.21147
Costa Rica5.027498.19678
Chile8.123898.13966
Venezuela, RB6.277698.09122
Marshall Islands5.080277.85952
South Africa7.207817.80041
Estonia5.001647.24874
Philippines6.963187.06607
Cuba6.856056.94057
Equatorial Guinea7.340366.85246
Honduras6.709376.72552
Kiribati6.349176.42433
Guyana6.369766.26987
Gabon6.362546.09124
Bolivia5.853836.04628
Sweden5.852175.99107
Lesotho5.001275.93226
Kenya5.087195.84695
Iceland5.687155.83887
Solomon Islands5.023145.81406
Uruguay5.004285.80678
Australia5.010045.68590
Zambia5.089325.63978
Ecuador5.838685.61844
New Zealand5.135765.58406
Belize5.452975.54806
Timor-Leste5.005235.44113
Tanzania5.290275.42503
Colombia5.262645.40619
Brunei Darussalam5.014835.40484
Papua New Guinea5.003405.37060
Fiji5.022505.35870
Nicaragua5.095455.34375
Panama5.005995.30016
El Salvador5.052925.24743
Seychelles4.926665.24212
Finland4.994485.22406
Madagascar5.001595.21810
Vanuatu5.008595.21081
Botswana5.003225.16612
Tonga5.088185.14790
Mozambique4.999595.11382
Mauritius5.097645.07905
Brazil5.250135.07802
Suriname5.295455.05235
Argentina5.212164.98674
Sao Tome and Principe4.957064.97077
Samoa4.994614.92124
Swaziland5.009954.91671
Malawi5.001054.87758
Zimbabwe5.002254.77891
Comoros4.954024.72747
Micronesia, Fed. Sts.4.999734.69715
Paraguay5.004454.47555
Namibia5.250514.44832
Norway5.563394.40615
Trinidad and Tobago5.267344.39580
Source: World Bank. (2015). World Development Indicators. Washington, DC: The World Bank. [Data at http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators]

Figure 1. Global Annual Average PM2.5 Grids (2001–2010).

Source: SEDAC, 2013


 Figure 2. Comparison of PM2.5 concentration with and without natural dust and sea salt (2001–2010).

Source: van Donkelaar et al., 2015


References:

Hamra, G. B., et al. (2014). Outdoor Particulate Matter Exposure and Lung Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. Environmental Health Perspectives, 122(9), 906–911. DOI: 10.1289/ehp/1408092. [Full-text at http://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/12987239/4154221.pdf]

Rohde, R. A., & Muller, R. A. (2015). Air Pollution in China: Mapping of Concentrations and Sources. PLoS ONE, 10(8), e0135749. [Full-text at http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0135749]

Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). (2013). Global Annual Average PM2.5 Grids from MODIS and MISR Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), v1 (2001 – 2010). [Map image at http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/set/sdei-global-annual-avg-pm2-5-2001-2010]

van Donkelaar, A., Martin, R. V., Brauer, M., & Boys, B. L. (2015). Use of Satellite Observations for Long-Term Exposure Assessment of Global Concentrations of Fine Particulate Matter. Environmental Health Perspectives, 123(2), 135–143. [Full-text at http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408646]
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Thursday, February 5, 2015

Efficiency of Energy Conversion and Delivery in G20 Countries, 2000-2012

How do we measure the efficiency of energy conversion and delivery at a country level? I am here using the 'final to primary energy ratios,' which is coined by the UN's Sustainable Energy for All initiative. As the name implies, it is simply calculated by dividing a country's 'total primary energy supply' (TPES) by her 'total final energy consumption' (TFEC or TFC).
I compared the ratios between G20 countries (except the European Union). The following figure shows a gradual decline of the energy conversion and delivery efficiency. The latest IEA/World Bank report for the Sustainable Energy for All initiative ("Global Tracking Framework Report")) explains that main causes would be "the growth in coal use for electricity generation, and coal, oil, and gas consumption for heat provision relative to other primary resources" (p. 123). In my opinion, electric heating (instead of heating by direct combustion of gas/coal/oil/biomass) is another cause of the declining shares of final energy consumption in primary energy supply due to increased number of energy conversion stages.
As for coal power's effects on lowering energy conversion efficiency, the reason is clear. Recently, a dutch energy consultancy Ecofys reviewed the performance of fossil power plants in Australia, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Sweden and Norway aggregated), South Korea, United Kingdom and Ireland (aggregated), and the United States. The study (2014) finds, in 2011, the weighted average energy efficiency of coal-fired power plants was 35%, that of gas-fired power plants was 48%, and that of oil power plants was nearly 40%.
Increasing consumption of the low-efficiency coal power explains why China's efficiency is getting worse every year. According to the World Bank's database for the Sustainable Energy for All initiative, China's coal power production grew at an annual growth rate of 11.8% from 2000–2010, whereas the country's primary energy supply rose by 8% annually during the same period.
South Africa's heavy dependence on coal power (94% of electricity production in 2010) might be keeping the country at a remote bottom among G20 countries in terms of energy transformation efficiency.
I cannot explain Saudi Arabia's sudden efficiency improvement in 2011 and 2012. Because Canada's efficiency has also improved recently, I suspect management strategies of the surplus crude oil by the two oil exporting countries have any effect on the final to primary energy ratios.
However, there's a problem in this accounting method of aggregating different energy resources. Because the overarching unit of the IEA's energy balance, tonnes of oil equivalent (TOE), cannot appropriately deal with renewable and nuclear energy sources. While fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas) can relatively easily compared among each other by their thermal energy content, it is very difficult to compare renewable and nuclear energy sources. Therefore, most renewable energy sources and the energy in nuclear fuel rods (mostly, processed uranium) are measured by the amount of electricity generated by each source.
The prime example is Brazil. Because the country's electricity mostly comes from hydro power (87% of electricity production in 2000; 78% in 2010), the final to primary energy ratio has been number one until outranked by Canada, another heavyweight producer of hydro power (59% of electricity production in 2012).
I think this mixed dealing with fuel and non-fossil energy sources are distorting the overall energy transformation efficiency statistics. Or am I unaware of a simple solution of my frustration over this problem?





 References:

Hussy, C. Klaassen, E., Koornneef, J., & Wigand, F. (2014). International Comparison of Fossil Power Efficiency and CO2 Intensity - Update 2014. Utrecht, The Netherlands: Ecofys. [Full-text at http://j.mp/Powerplants_EE]

International Energy Agency. (2003–2014). Energy Balances of OECD Countries. Paris, France: IEA Publications.

International Energy Agency. (2003–2014). Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries. Paris, France: IEA Publications.

International Energy Agency, & World Bank. (2014). Sustainable Energy for All 2013-2014: Global Tracking Framework Report.  Washington, DC: World Bank. [Full-text at http://j.mp/SE4All_13-14]

World Bank. (2014). Sustainable Energy for All. Washington, DC: The World Bank. [Data at http://j.mp/SE4ALL]
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