Maximum CO2 Emissions According to IEA's Updated Estimation of Fossil Fuel Reserves and Resources

According to the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2012, the updated data table for fossil fuel reserves and resources is as below. (Notes: (1) R/P ratio = Reserves-to-production ratio based on 2011 levels of production. (2) Resources are remaining technically recoverable resources.)

Table. Fossil-fuel reserves and resources by region and type, end-2011 (coal = 2010 data)

	Coal (billion tonnes)		Natural gas (tcm)		Oil (billion barrels)
	Proven reserves	Recoverable resources	Proven reserves	Recoverable resources	Proven reserves	Recoverable resources
OECD	427	10,657	28	193	244	2,345
Non-OECD	576	10,551	205	597	1,450	3,526
Share of non-OECD	57%	50%	88%	76%	86%	60%
World	1,004	21,208	232	790	1,694	5,871
R/P ratio (years)	132	2,780	71	241	55	189

WEO 2012 says we have plenty of fossil fuels currently: 132 years' supply of coal, 71 years' supply of natural gas, and 55 years' supply of oil, only from "proven" reserves.
Then, however, how much carbon dioxide can be released to the atmosphere if we consume (combustion) all the fossil fuel reserves or resources? Using the BP's suggested conversion factors, I got the following estimation.

Table. A rough estimation of possible CO₂ emissions based on reserves or resources*
(unit: gigatonnes of CO₂)

	Proven reserves	Recoverable resources
Coal	2,304	48,668
Natural gas	491	1,671
Oil	709	2,458
Total	3,504**	52,797

* NOT an official estimation. Errors are mine.
** World Energy Outlook 2012 states the global carbon reserve is 2,860 gigatonnes of CO₂ (p. 259). I think I used inaccurate emission factors, especially for coal.

That is, proven reserves alone can emit 3,504 (or 2,860) gigatonnes of carbon dioxide. A study published in Nature (Allen et al., 2009) stated that the total anthropogenic emissions could be 3.67 trillion tonnes of CO₂ and about half of them had already been emitted since industrialization began. So at the time of the study's publication, about 1.8 trillion tonnes of CO₂ were yet to be emitted. However, the new IEA estimation of reserves asserts there are still 3.5 (or 2.9) trillion tonnes of CO₂ to emit.
So, technological advancement has significantly increased the possible future CO₂ emissions. Do we have to be complacent because we have enough fossil fuels or is it a really sad news for our children? I hope that the world can somehow reach to an agreement soon and prevent the catastrophic climate change that could be realized if we burn all the fuels.


Emissions factors used in the emissions estimation:

Coal	3.96 ton CO2/toe	=	2.294789 ton CO2/ton
Natural gas	2.35 ton CO2/toe	=	0.002115 ton CO2/cm
Oil	3.07 ton CO2/toe	=	0.418748 ton CO2/bbl

References:

Reserves/resources:	IEA. (2012). World Energy Outlook 2012. Paris, France: IEA Publications. http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/
Conversion factors modified from:	BP. (2012). BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2012. London, UK: BP p.l.c. http://j.mp/BP_Review_2012
Cited previous study:	Allen et al. (2009). Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne. Nature, 458, 1163-1166. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature08019