Latest Estimates of Global Fossil Fuel Resources and Reserves, as of January 2013

Table 1. Summary

Fossil fuel	Unit	2011 production	Reserves	Reserves-to- production ratio (years)	Recoverable resources
Crude oil	million barrels	31,875	1,642,354	52	3,356,964
Wet natural gas	trillion cubic feet	124	6,839	55	22,882
Coal	million tonnes	7,710	1,037,552	135	22,308,986
Hard coal		6,640	754,595	114	17,873,677
Lignite		1,070	282,957	264	4,435,309
Sources: Andruleit et al. (2012); U.S. EIA (2013)
Fossil fuel	Unit	2011 production	Reserves	R/P (years)	Resources
Crude oil	million toe	4,348	224,017	52	457,890
Wet natural gas	million toe	3,160	174,293	55	583,152
Coal	million toe	4,784	597,382	125	13,394,221
Hard coal		4,427	503,063	114	11,915,785
Lignite		357	94,319	264	1,478,436
Total	million toe	12,291	995,692	81	14,435,262

Conversion factors (BP, 2013):
        toe = tonnes oil equivalent
        1 barrel = 0.1364 toe
        1 tcf = 25.4851650054429 mtoe
        1.5 tonnes of hard coal = 1 toe
        3 tonnes of lignite = 1 toe

Table 2. Crude oil
Unit: million barrels

Region totals and selected countries (1)	2011 oil production (2)	January 1, 2013 estimated proved oil reserves (3)	2013 EIA/ARI unproved shale oil technically recoverable resources (TRR)	2012 USGS conventional unproved oil TRR, including reserve growth (4)	Total technically recoverable crude oil resources
Europe	1,537	11,748	12,900	14,638	39,286
Bulgaria	1	15	200
Denmark	83	805	0
France	28	85	4,700
Germany	51	254	700
Netherlands	21	244	2,900
Norway	733	5,366	0
Poland	10	157	3,300
Romania	38	600	300
Spain	10	150	100
Sweden	4	-	0
United Kingdom	426	3,122	700
Former Soviet Union	4,866	118,886	77,200	114,481	310,567
Lithuania	3	12	300
Russia (5)	3,737	80,000	75,800
Ukraine	29	395	1,100
North America	6,093	208,550	80,000	305,546	594,096
Canada	1,313	173,105	8,800
Mexico	1,080	10,264	13,100
United States (6)	3,699	25,181	58,100	139,311	222,592
Asia and Pacific	2,866	41,422	61,000	64,362	166,784
Australia	192	1,433	17,500
China	1,587	25,585	32,200
Indonesia	371	4,030	7,900
Mongolia	3	-	3,400
Thailand	152	453	0
South Asia	396	5,802	12,900	8,211	26,913
India	361	5,476	3,800
Pakistan	23	248	9,100
Middle East and North Africa	10,986	867,463	42,900	463,407	1,373,770
Algeria	680	12,200	5,700
Egypt	265	4,400	4,600
Jordan	-	1	100
Libya	183	48,010	26,100
Morocco	2	1	0
Tunisia	26	425	1,500
Turkey	21	270	4,700
Western Sahara	-	-	200
Sub-Saharan Africa	2,264	62,553	100	140,731	203,384
Mauritania	3	20	100
South Africa	66	15	0
South America & Caribbean	2,868	325,930	59,700	258,234	643,864
Argentina	279	2,805	27,000
Bolivia	18	210	600
Brazil	980	13,154	5,300
Chile	7	150	2,300
Colombia	343	2,200	6,800
Paraguay	1	-	3,700
Uruguay	0	-	600
Venezuela	909	297,570	13,400
Subtotal of above countries (7)	17,737	718,411	345,000	NA	NA
Subtotal, excluding the United States (7)	14,038	693,230	286,900	NA	NA
Total World (7,8)	31,875	1,642,354	345,000	1,369,610	3,356,964

Source: U.S. EIA (2013)
Notes:
1 Regions totals include additional countries not specifically included in this table. Regions based on USGS regions http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2012/3042/fs2012-3042.pdf and Figure 2.
2 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics, as of April 3, 2013.
3 Oil & Gas Journal, Worldwide Report, December 3, 2012.
4 Sources: U.S. Geological Survey, An Estimate of Undiscovered Conventional Oil and Gas Resources of the World, 2012, Fact Sheet 2012-3028, March 2012; U.S. Geological Survey, Assessment of Potential Additions to Conventional Oil and Gas Resources of the World (Outside the United States) from Reserve Growth, 2012, Fact Sheet 2012-3052, April 2012.
5 Includes the Kaliningrad shale oil resource estimate of 1.2 billion barrels.
6 Represents unproved U.S. tight oil resources as reported in the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Assumptions report, Tables 9.1 through 9.5.
7 Totals might not equal the sum of the components due to independent rounding.
8 Total of regions.
"-" indicates zero, "0" indicates a nonzero value

Table 3. Wet natural gas
Unit: trillion cubic feet

Region totals and selected countries (1)	2011 natural gas production (2)	January 1, 2013 estimated proved natural gas reserves (3)	2013 EIA/ARI unproved wet shale gas technically recoverable resources (TRR)	2012 USGS conventional unproved wet natural gas TRR, including reserve growth (4)	Total technically recoverable wet natural gas resources
Europe	10	145	470	184	799
Bulgaria	0	0	17
Denmark	0	2	32
France	0	0	137
Germany	0	4	17
Netherlands	3	43	26
Norway	4	73	0
Poland	0	3	148
Romania	0	4	51
Spain	0	0	8
Sweden	-	-	10
United Kingdom	2	9	26
Former Soviet Union	30	2,178	415	2,145	4,738
Lithuania	-	-	0
Russia (5)	24	1,688	287
Ukraine	1	39	128
North America	32	403	1,685	2,223	4,312
Canada	6	68	573
Mexico	2	17	545
United States (6)	24	318	567	1,546	2,431
Asia and Pacific	13	418	1,607	858	2,883
Australia	2	43	437
China	4	124	1,115
Indonesia	3	108	46
Mongolia	-	-	4
Thailand	1	10	5
South Asia	4	86	201	183	470
India	2	44	96
Pakistan	1	24	105
Middle East and North Africa	26	3,117	1,003	1,651	5,772
Algeria	3	159	707
Egypt	2	77	100
Jordan	0	0	7
Libya	0	55	122
Morocco	0	0	12
Tunisia	0	2	23
Turkey	0	0	24
Western Sahara	-	-	8
Sub-Saharan Africa	2	222	390	831	1,443
Mauritania	-	1	0
South Africa	0	-	390
South America & Caribbean	6	269	1,430	766	2,465
Argentina	2	12	802
Bolivia	1	10	36
Brazil	1	14	245
Chile	0	3	48
Colombia	0	6	55
Paraguay	-	-	75
Uruguay	-	-	2
Venezuela	1	195	167
Subtotal of above countries (7)	89	3,157	7,201	NA	NA
Subtotal, excluding the United States (7)	65	2,840	6,634	NA	NA
Total World (7, 8)	124	6,839	7,201	8,842	22,882

Source: U.S. EIA (2013)
Notes:
1 Regions totals include additional countries not specifically included in this table. Regions based on USGS regions http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2012/3042/fs2012-3042.pdf and Figure 2.
2 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics, as of April 3, 2013.
3 Oil & Gas Journal, Worldwide Report, December 3, 2012.
4 Sources: U.S. Geological Survey, An Estimate of Undiscovered Conventional Oil and Gas Resources of the World, 2012, Fact Sheet 2012-3028, March 2012; U.S. Geological Survey, Assessment of Potential Additions to Conventional Oil and Gas Resources of the World (Outside the United States) from Reserve Growth, 2012, Fact Sheet 2012-3052, April 2012.
5 Includes the Kaliningrad shale gas resource estimate of 2 trillion cubic feet.
6 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Assumptions report, Tables 9.1 through 9.5.; wet natural gas volumes were determined by multiplying the AEO2013 dry unproved natural gas resource estimate by 1.045 so as to include NGPL.
7 Totals might not equal the sum of the components due to independent rounding.
8 Total of regions.
"-" indicates zero, "0" indicates a nonzero value

Table 4. Hard coal
Unit: Mt

Country / Region	2011 production	Reserves	Resources	Remaining potential
Europe	135.1	20,048	472,675	492,723
Belgium	‒	‒	4,100	4,100
Bosnia and Herzegovina	‒	827	1,309	2,136
Bulgaria	2.3	192	3,920	4,112
Czech Republic	11.0	1,139	15,410	16,550
France	0.1	‒	160	160
Germany	13.0	48	82,961	83,009
Hungary	‒	276	5,075	5,351
Ireland	‒	14	26	40
Italy	0.1	10	600	610
Montenegro	‒	142	195	337
Netherlands	‒	497	2,750	3,247
Norway	1.6	15	37	52
Poland	76.5	14,711	162,317	177,028
Portugal	‒	3	n.s.	3
Romania	2.6	11	2,435	2,446
Serbia	0.1	402	453	855
Slovakia	‒	‒	19	19
Slovenia	‒	56	39	95
Spain	6.6	868	3,363	4,231
Sweden	‒	1	4	5
Turkey	2.6	386	802	1,188
United Kingdom	18.6	450	186,700	187,150
CIS	443.5	121,308	2,842,245	2,963,552
Armenia	‒	163	154	317
Georgia	< 0.05	201	700	901
Kazakhstan	102.9	17,242	125,890	143,132
Kyrgyzstan	0.1	971	27,528	28,499
Russian Federation	258.5	68,944	2,624,612	2,693,556
Tajikistan	0.2	375	3,700	4,075
Turkmenistan	‒	‒	800	800
Ukraine	81.9	32,039	49,006	81,045
Uzbekistan	0.1	1,375	9,854	11,229
Africa	259.3	36,239	81,566	117,805
Algeria	‒	59	164	223
Botswana	1.2	40	21,200	21,240
Congo, Democratic Republic	0.1	88	900	988
Egypt	< 0.05	16	166	182
Madagascar	‒	‒	150	150
Malawi	0.1	2	800	802
Morocco	‒	14	82	96
Mozambique	1.4	849	23,338	24,187
Namibia	‒	‒	350	350
Niger	0.2	‒	90	90
Nigeria	< 0.05	292	2,065	2,357
South Africa	253.1	33,896	n.s.	33,896
Swaziland	0.1	144	4,500	4,644
Tanzania, United Republic	< 0.05	269	1,141	1,410
Uganda	‒	‒	800	800
Zambia	< 0.05	69	820	889
Zimbabwe	3.0	502	25,000	25,502
Middle East	1.5	1,203	40,000	41,203
Iran, Islamic Republic	1.5	1,203	40,000	41,203
Afghanistan	0.5	66	n.s.	66
Austral-Asia	4,714.6	336,154	6,862,259	7,198,413
Australia	345.2	57,538	1,521,732	1,579,270
Bangladesh	0.9	293	2,967	3,260
Bhutan	0.1	n.s.	n.s.	n.s.
China	3,383.7	180,600	5,010,000	5,190,600
India	539.9	77,197	175,352	252,549
Indonesia	324.9	13,512	73,299	86,811
Japan	0.9	340	13,543	13,883
Korea, Democratic People's Republic
(North)	24.0	600	10,000	10,600
Korea, Republic (South)	2.1	326	1,360	1,686
Laos, People's Democratic Republic	< 0.05	4	58	62
Malaysia	2.9	141	1,068	1,209
Mongolia	27.0	1,170	39,854	41,024
Myanmar	1.1	3	248	252
Nepal	< 0.05	1	7	8
New Caledonia	‒	2	n.s.	2
New Zealand	4.6	825	2,350	3,175
Pakistan	3.2	207	5,789	5,996
Philippines	7.6	211	1,012	1,223
Taiwan	‒	1	101	102
Viet Nam	45.8	3,116	3,519	6,635
North America	996.1	230,701	6,643,846	6,874,547
Canada	57.4	4,346	183,260	187,606
Greenland	‒	183	200	383
Mexico	13.7	1,160	3,000	4,160
United States	925.0	225,012	6,457,386	6,682,398
Latin America	90.3	8,943	26,491	35,434
Argentina	0.2	500	300	800
Bolivia	‒	1	n.s.	1
Brazil	‒	1,547	4,665	6,212
Chile	0.1	1,181	4,135	5,316
Colombia	85.8	4,881	9,928	14,809
Costa Rica	‒	‒	17	17
Peru	0.1	102	1,465	1,567
Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic	4.1	731	5,981	6,712
World	6,640.4	754,595	17,119,082	17,873,677

Source: Andruleit et al. (2012)
Notes:
n.s.: not specified
–: no production, reserves or resources

Table 5. Lignite
Unit: Mt

Region	2011 production	Reserves	Resources	Remaining potential
Europe	563.0	69,350	326,228	395,578
Albania	< 0.05	522	205	727
Austria	–	–	333	333
Bosnia and Herzegovina	7.1	1,272	1,801	3,073
Bulgaria	34.5	2,174	2,400	4,574
Croatia	–	n.s.	300	300
Czech Republic	46.8	2,683	7,204	9,887
France	–	n.s.	114	114
Germany	176.5	40,500	36,500	77,000
Greece	58.8	2,876	3,554	6,430
Hungary	9.5	2,633	2,704	5,337
Italy	–	7	22	29
Kosovo	8.2	1,564	9,262	10,826
Macedonia, former Yugoslav Republic	6.7	332	300	632
Montenegro	1.9	n.s.	n.s.	n.s.
Poland	62.9	4,514	226,832	231,346
Portugal	–	33	33	66
Romania	32.9	280	9,640	9,920
Serbia	40.3	7,112	13,074	20,186
Slovakia	2.4	138	934	1,072
Slovenia	4.5	315	341	656
Spain	–	319	n.s.	319
Turkey	70.0	2,076	9,676	11,752
United Kingdom	–	–	1,000	1,000
CIS	91.0	93,520	1,278,553	1,372,073
Belarus	–	–	1,500	1,500
Kazakhstan	8.4	n.s.	n.s.	n.s.
Kyrgyzstan	0.8	n.s.	n.s.	n.s.
Russian Federation	77.6	91,184	1,271,672	1,362,856
Tajikistan	0.1	n.s.	n.s.	n.s.
Ukraine	0.2	2,336	5,381	7,717
Uzbekistan	3.8	n.s.	n.s.	n.s.
Africa	–	72	402	474
Central African Republic	–	3	n.s.	3
Madagascar	–	–	37	37
Mali	–	–	3	3
Morocco	–	–	40	40
Niger	-	6	n.s.	6
Nigeria	-	63	320	383
Sierra Leone	–	–	2	2
Austral-Asia	332.4	81,986	1,041,184	1,123,170
Australia	65.7	44,219	175,536	219,755
Bangladesh	–	–	3	3
China	136.3	11,000	307,000	318,000
India	43.1	4,847	35,782	40,629
Indonesia	51.3	9,002	19,021	28,023
Japan	–	10	1,026	1,036
Korea, Democratic People's Republic (North)	7.6	n.s.	n.s.	n.s.
Laos, People's Democratic Republic	0.6	499	22	521
Malaysia	–	39	412	451
Mongolia	6.0	1,350	119,426	120,776
Myanmar	0.2	3	2	5
New Zealand	0.3	6,750	4,600	11,350
Pakistan	–	2,857	176,739	179,596
Philippines	–	105	912	1,017
Thailand	21.3	1,063	826	1,889
Viet Nam	–	244	199,876	200,120
North America	77.4	32,956	1,485,867	1,518,823
Canada	9.7	2,236	118,270	120,506
Mexico	–	51	n.s.	51
United States	67.7	30,669	1,367,597	1,398,266
Latin America	6.0	5,073	20,118	25,191
Argentina	–	–	7,300	7,300
Brazil	5.4	5,049	12,587	17,636
Chile	0.5	n.s.	7	7
Dominican Republic	–	–	84	84
Ecuador	–	24	n.s.	24
Haiti	–	–	40	40
Peru	–	–	100	100
World	1,069.8	282,957	4,152,351	4,435,309

Source: Andruleit et al. (2012)
Notes:
n.s.: not specified
–: no production, reserves or resources


References:

Andruleit, H., Babies, H. G., Bahr, A., Kus, J., Meßner, J., & Schauer, M. (2012). Energy Study 2012: Reserves, Resources and Availability of Energy Resources. Berlin, Germany: Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe (BGR; Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources). [Full-text at http://j.mp/BGR_2012]

BP. (2013). BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2013. London, UK: BP, plc. [Full-text at http://bp.com/statisticalreview]

U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2013). Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources: An Assessment of 137 Shale Formations in 41 Countries Outside the United States. Washington, DC: U.S. Energy Information Administration. [Full-text at http://j.mp/Gas_Oil]

What Made South Korea the Saddest Country in the OECD? (Part 2)

This is Part 2 of my efforts to explain why South Korea's suicide death rates are the highest in the OECD.
As signs of South Korea's gloomy social environment, I am presenting six figures that are copied from two OECD reports published in 2013.
(For the full names of countries, please see the note at the end of this article.)

The first figure shows how much of income inequality is reduced by taxes and cash transfers. Korea is the worst country in reducing income inequality by those measures.

Source: Denk et al. (2013)

The second figure shows the share of cash transfers in each country's Gross Domestic Product. Korea has the second smallest share of cash transfers (next to Mexico) among OECD countries.

Source: Denk et al. (2013)

The third figure shows the share of social spending in each country's Gross Domestic Product. Korea has the smallest share of social spending among OECD countries.

Source: Égert (2013)

The fourth figure shows the ratio of each country's public spending or benefit for the people who are disabled or with limited capacity, relative to the country's Gross Domestic Product. Korea has the smallest shares of those expenditures among OECD countries.

Source: Égert (2013)

The fifth figure shows the share of public spending for family benefits in each country's Gross Domestic Product. Korea has the smallest shares of those measures among OECD countries. That's a reason why Korea's fertility rate is the lowest in the group.

Source: Égert (2013)

The sixth figure shows the poverty rates of old people (65 years old or older). Korea shows the highest old-age poverty rate among OECD countries.

Source: Égert (2013)

Then, what could be done to remedy these symptoms? 

Sources:
Denk, O., Hagemann, R., Lenain, P., & Somma, V. (2013). Inequality and Poverty in the United States: Public Policies for Inclusive Growth. OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1052. Paris, France: OECD Publishing. [Full-text at http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5k46957cwv8q-en]
Égert, B. (2013). The Efficiency and Equity of the Tax and Transfer System in France. OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1038. Paris, France: OECD Publishing. [Full-text at http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5k487n4jqqg5-en]

Note:
ISO Country Codes for OECD Members
AUS Australia
AUT Austria
BEL Belgium
CAN Canada
CHE Switzerland
CHL Chile
CZE Czech Republic
DEU Germany
DNK Denmark
ESP Spain
EST Estonia
FIN Finland
FRA France
GBR United Kingdom
GRC Greece
HUN Hungary
IRL Ireland
ISL Iceland
ISR Israel
ITA Italy
JPN Japan
KOR Korea
LUX Luxembourg
MEX Mexico
NLD Netherlands
NOR Norway
NZL New Zealand
POL Poland
PRT Portugal
SVK Slovak Republic
SVN Slovenia
SWE Sweden
TUR Turkey
USA United States

Universal Goals and National Targets for the UN's Post-2015 (Post-MDG) Development Agenda

Here, I am copying the "Universal Goals and National Targets" for the UN's "Post-2015 Development Agenda". The Post-2015 Development Agenda is replacing the Millennium Development Goals.

PRIORITIES: FIVE TRANSFORMATIVE SHIFTS

1. Leave No One Behind. We must ensure that no person – regardless of ethnicity, gender, geography, disability, race or other status – is denied basic economic opportunities and human rights.
2. Put Sustainable Development at the Core. We must make a rapid shift to sustainable patterns of production and consumption, with developed countries in the lead. We must act now to slow the alarming pace of climate change and environmental degradation, which pose unprecedented threats to humanity.
3. Transform Economies for Jobs and Inclusive Growth. A profound economic transformation can end extreme poverty and promote sustainable development, improving livelihoods, by harnessing innovation, technology, and the potential of business. More diversified economies, with equal opportunities for all, can drive social inclusion, especially for young people, and foster respect for the environment.
4. Build Peace and Effective, Open and Accountable Institutions for All. Freedom from violence, conflict, and oppression is essential to human existence, and the foundation for building peaceful and prosperous societies. We are calling for a fundamental shift – to recognize peace and good governance as a core element of wellbeing, not an optional extra.
5. Forge a New Global Partnership. A new spirit of solidarity, cooperation, and mutual accountability must underpin the post-2015 agenda. This new partnership should be built on our shared humanity, and based on mutual respect and mutual benefit.

UNIVERSAL GOALS, NATIONAL TARGETS
Notes:
1: Candidates for global minimum standards, including ‘zero’ goals.
2: Indicators to be disaggregated.
3: Targets require further technical work to find appropriate indicators.

Universal Goals	National Targets
1. End Poverty	1a. Bring the number of people living on less than $1.25 a day to zero and reduce by x% the share of people living below their country’s 2015 national poverty line 1, 2
	1b. Increase by x% the share of women and men, communities, and businesses with secure rights to land, property, and other assets 2, 3
	1c. Cover x% of people who are poor and vulnerable with social protection systems 2, 3
	1d. Build resilience and reduce deaths from natural disasters by x% 2
2. Empower Girls and Women and Achieve Gender Equality	2a. Prevent and eliminate all forms of violence against girls and women 1, 2, 3
	2b. End child marriage 1, 2
	2c. Ensure equal right of women to own and inherit property, sign a contract, register a business and open a bank account 1, 2
	2d. Eliminate discrimination against women in political, economic, and public life 1, 2, 3
3. Provide Quality Education and Lifelong Learning	3a. Increase by x% the proportion of children able to access and complete pre-primary education 2
	3b. Ensure every child, regardless of circumstance, completes primary education able to read, write and count well enough to meet minimum learning standards 1, 2
	3c. Ensure every child, regardless of circumstance, has access to lower secondary education and increase the proportion of adolescents who achieve recognized and measurable learning outcomes to x% 1, 2
	3d. Increase the number of young and adult women and men with the skills, including technical and vocational, needed for work by x% 2, 3
4. Ensure Healthy Lives	4a. End preventable infant and under-5 deaths 1, 2
	4b. Increase by x% the proportion of children, adolescents, at-risk adults and older people that are fully vaccinated 1, 2
	4c. Decrease the maternal mortality ratio to no more than x per 100,000 1, 2
	4d. Ensure universal sexual and reproductive health and rights 1, 2
	4e. Reduce the burden of disease from HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, neglected tropical diseases and priority non-communicable diseases 2
5. Ensure Food Security and Good Nutrition	5a. End hunger and protect the right of everyone to have access to sufficient, safe, affordable, and nutritious food 1, 2
	5b. Reduce stunting by x%, wasting by y%, and anemia by z% for all children under five 1, 2
	5c. Increase agricultural productivity by x%, with a focus on sustainably increasing smallholder yields and access to irrigation 3
	5d. Adopt sustainable agricultural, ocean and freshwater fishery practices and rebuild designated fish stocks to sustainable levels 1
	5e. Reduce postharvest loss and food waste by x% 3
6. Achieve Universal Access to Water and Sanitation	6a. Provide universal access to safe drinking water at home, and in schools, health centers, and refugee camps 1, 2
	6b. End open defecation and ensure universal access to sanitation at school and work, and increase access to sanitation at home by x% 1, 2
	6c. Bring freshwater withdrawals in line with supply and increase water efficiency in agriculture by x%, industry by y% and urban areas by z%
	6d. Recycle or treat all municipal and industrial wastewater prior to discharge 1, 3
7. Secure Sustainable Energy	7a. Double the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix
	7b. Ensure universal access to modern energy services 1, 2
	7c. Double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency in buildings, industry, agriculture and transport
	7d. Phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption 1, 3
8. Create Jobs, Sustainable Livelihoods, and Equitable Growth	8a. Increase the number of good and decent jobs and livelihoods by x 2
	8b. Decrease the number of young people not in education, employment or training by x% 2
	8c. Strengthen productive capacity by providing universal access to financial services and infrastructure such as transportation and ICT 1, 2, 3
	8d. Increase new start-ups by x and value added from new products by y through creating an enabling business environment and boosting entrepreneurship 2, 3
9. Manage Natural Resource Assets Sustainably	9a. Publish and use economic, social and environmental accounts in all governments and major companies 1
	9b. Increase consideration of sustainability in x% of government procurements 3
	9c. Safeguard ecosystems, species and genetic diversity
	9d. Reduce deforestation by x% and increase reforestation by y%
	9e. Improve soil quality, reduce soil erosion by x tonnes and combat desertification
10. Ensure Good Governance and Effective Institutions	10a. Provide free and universal legal identity, such as birth registrations 1, 2
	10b. Ensure people enjoy freedom of speech, association, peaceful protest and access to independent media and information 1, 3
	10c. Increase public participation in political processes and civic engagement at all levels 2, 3
	10d. Guarantee the public’s right to information and access to government data 1
	10e. Reduce bribery and corruption and ensure officials can be held accountable 3
11. Ensure Stable and Peaceful Societies	11a. Reduce violent deaths per 100, 000 by x and eliminate all forms of violence against children 1, 2, 3
	11b. Ensure justice institutions are accessible, independent, well-resourced and respect due-process rights 1, 2, 3
	11c. Stem the external stressors that lead to conflict, including those related to organised crime 3
	11d. Enhance the capacity, professionalism and accountability of the security forces, police and judiciary 3
12. Create a Global Enabling Environment and Catalyse Long-Term Finance	12a. Support an open, fair and development-friendly trading system, substantially reducing trade-distorting measures, including agricultural subsidies, while improving market access of developing country products 3
	12b. Implement reforms to ensure stability of the global financial system and encourage stable, long-term private foreign investment 3
	12c. Hold the increase in global average temperature below 2⁰ C above pre-industrial levels, in line with international agreements
	12d. Developed countries that have not done so to make concrete efforts towards the target of 0.7% of gross national product (GNP) as official development assistance to developing countries and 0.15 to 0.20% of GNP of developed countries to least developed countries; other countries should move toward voluntary targets for complementary financial assistance
	12e Reduce illicit flows and tax evasion and increase stolen-asset recovery by $x 3
	12f. Promote collaboration on and access to science, technology, innovation, and development data 3

Source: High-Level Panel of Eminent Persons on the Post-2015 Development Agenda. (2013). A New Global Partnership: Eradicate Poverty and Transform Economies through Sustainable Development. New York, NY: United Nations Publications. [Full-text at http://j.mp/Post_MDG2015]

The Keeling Curve Reaches 400 ppm CO2

For the first time since the measuring of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration began in 1958, the Keeling curve surpassed the 400 ppm CO₂ milestone on May 9, 2013.

The CO₂ censor reading at the Mauna Loa Observatory on May 09, 2013: 400.03 ppm

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (2013). Carbon Dioxide at NOAA’s Mauna Loa Observatory reaches new milestone: Tops 400 ppm. Silver Spring, MD: NOAA Research. Retrieved May 10, 2013 from http://researchmatters.noaa.gov/news/Pages/CarbonDioxideatMaunaLoareaches400ppm.aspx

Worsening planetary energy imbalance and climate change

The existence of anthropogenic climate change has firm scientific evidence, no matter what global warming denialists say with no evidence or with interests (Hansen, Sato, & Ruedy, 2012; Washington & Cook, 2011). Although many ill-informed politicians, self-interested organizations, and even some scientists in non-atmospheric circles tried to discredit science of climate change (Nordhaus, 2012), global warming represented by a figure called “hockey stick” is undeniable (Mann, 2012).

Recent estimates of Earth’s energy budget clearly indicate that anthropogenic global warming is happening at annual net energy gain rates of 0.6±0.4 W/m² (i.e., 0.6 = 340.2 (incoming solar) − 239.7 (outgoing longwave radiation) − 99.9 (reflected solar) W/m²) over 2000-2010 (Stephens et al., 2012). To be more specific, the net energy imbalance was annually 0.9 ± 0.5 W/m² over 2000-2005 (Trenberth & Fasullo, 2012) and 0.58 ± 0.15 W/m² over 2005-2010 (Hansen, Sato, Kharecha, & von Schuckmann, 2011). This energy imbalance is mainly caused by burning fossil fuels (Dukes, 2003), the vast majority of which had been stored underground for millions of years before the Industrial Revolution began to utilize coal steam engines from around 1760. Instead of searching for alternative and more sustainable energy sources, globalized energy industry is “ripping apart the earth” to extract more fossil fuels (McKibben, 2012).

Because the environment is “warmer and moister than it used to be” (Trenberth, 2012, p. 7), all weather events as well as extreme ones are affected by the current climate change. Hurricane Katrina in August 2005 (Graumann et al., 2006) was a dramatic symbol of how human inaction will worsen the climate change and harm humans themselves (Karl, Melillo, & Peterson, 2009; Lynn, Healy, & Druyan, 2009). Hurricane Sandy in October 2012 wreaked more havoc on lower Manhattan in New York and shorelines in New Jersey by exacerbated storm surge due to sea-level rise, which is undeniably caused by human induced global warming (Gillis, 2012).

Therefore, sustainability cannot be achieved without climate change mitigation. One of the most evident ways to minimize the adverse effects of human activities is to minimize greenhouse emissions, as suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (Core Writing Team, Pachauri, & Reisinger, 2007). The more we delay to reduce greenhouse gas emissions drastically, the harder it becomes that we contain global warming within manageable limits. However, time is running out (Ranger et al., 2012; van Vliet et al., 2012). The latest estimation for the global carbon dioxide emissions in 2012 shows a trend worse than the IPCC’s worst warming scenario (Peters et al., 2012).

Although some recent studies indicate that imminent peak production of fossil fuels will eventually limit global CO₂ emissions (Rutledge, 2011; Vernon, Thompson, & Cornell, 2011), even their analyses can be counter-argued by scientists’ analyses showing even fossil fuel reserves that are significantly lower than IPCC scenarios can induce catastrophic climate changes (for example, Kharecha & Hansen (2008)). We have to prepare for worst cases by reducing emissions right now (Oreskes, Stainforth, & Smith, 2010).

Then what should be our goal for climate change mitigation? It is widely accepted that we have to confine global warming within 2 °C above the pre-industrial global average temperature (Knopf, Kowarsch, Flachsland, & Edenhofer, 2012; UNEP, 2010; UNFCCC, 2010). According to the IPCC’s new climate change scenario called Representative Concentration Pathways (Moss et al., 2008), the organization’s targets in 2100 to limit global surface temperature change within 2 °C since industrialization is 2.6 W/m² of radiative forcing increase since industrialization and the CO₂ equivalent concentration of greenhouse gas should be limited to 450 ppm (van Vuuren et al., 2012). By definition, all values for the pre-industrial era should be based on those of the year 1750 (Core Writing Team et al., 2007, p. 36). However, climate models of the IPCC run their simulations by setting the benchmark year as any year between 1765 and 1850, for there are not a significant change in greenhouse gas concentrations during the period (Meinshausen et al., 2011).

How much is the amount of greenhouse gas emissions that are equivalent of the warming limit? It is recently estimated that we have to reduce our CO₂ emissions by more than 80% compared to a peak emissions to stabilize a CO₂ concentration at any chosen target level within a century or so (Committee on Stabilization Targets for Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Concentrations, 2011).

Then what are we humans doing to achieve the target? Sadly, we are not doing enough, if not nothing. Although the Kyoto Protocol and its child EU ETS have given us a small bit of hope, the skepticism of environmentalists and scientists against any kind of selfless negotiations between nations turned out to be right. Copenhagen Climate Change Conference (COP15/CMP5) held in 2009 didn't produce any tangible, legally-binding agreement between nations. Its outcome, the Copenhagen Accord, just voiced the world’s agreed concern that global average temperature 2 °C warmer than pre-industrial age was unacceptable (UNFCCC, 2010).

The outcome of Durban Climate Change Conference (COP17/CMP7) held in 2011 was creation of an “Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action” (“Durban Platform”). COP17 just promised that the Durban Platform will prepare a legally binding protocol ratified by countries no later than 2015. But this time, global leaders admitted that holding global average temperature increase below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels might not be sufficient to avoid anthropogenic catastrophe and began to mention 1.5 °C (UNFCCC, 2012).

Today, I don’t have an answer about what we have to do for real outcome for global climate change mitigation. In my future post, I’ll search for promising answers.

References

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